Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	san_antonio	39		✓	0.955	0.00219	0.0424
1	san_antonio	39		✗	0	0	0
2	convent_center	40		✓	0.181	0.0143	0.034
2	convent_center	40		✗	0.749	0.00179	0.0191
3	work_peopl	21		✓	0.155	0	0.0173
3	work_peopl	21		✗	0.795	0	0.0332
4	term_limit	57		✓	0.283	0	0
4	term_limit	57		✗	0.717	0	0
5	air_forc	39		✓	0.167	0	0
5	air_forc	39		✗	0.833	0	0
6	rural_commun	61		✓	0.248	0	0.000796
6	rural_commun	61		✗	0.751	0	0
7	nativ_american	20		✓	0.0935	0	0
7	nativ_american	20		✗	0.906	0	0
8	common_theme	14		✓	0.0649	0	0
8	common_theme	14		✗	0.935	0	0
9	world_war_ii	26		✓	0.11	0	0
9	world_war_ii	26		✗	0.89	0	0
10	assembl_line	9		✓	0.0366	0	0.000995
10	assembl_line	9		✗	0.962	0	0
11	back_home	6		✓	0.039	0	0
11	back_home	6		✗	0.961	0	0
12	attend_colleg	6		✓	0.0322	0	0
12	attend_colleg	6		✗	0.968	0	0
13	gi_bill	3		✓	0.0263	0	0
13	gi_bill	3		✗	0.974	0	0
14	small_town	25		✓	0.115	0	0
14	small_town	25		✗	0.885	0	0
15	singl_mom	13		✓	0.0603	0	0
15	singl_mom	13		✗	0.94	0	0
16	work_famili	107		✓	0.386	0.0117	0.0842
16	work_famili	107		✗	0.518	0	0
17	collar_worker	60		✓	0.32	0	0
17	collar_worker	60		✗	0.68	0	0
18	meet_peopl	66		✓	0.279	0	0
18	meet_peopl	66		✗	0.721	0	0
19	basic_idea	63		✓	0.265	0	0.0147
19	basic_idea	63		✗	0.72	0	0
20	work_hard	26		✓	0.119	0	0.00239
20	work_hard	26		✗	0.874	0	0.00458
21	hard_work	72		✓	0.308	0	0.00517
21	hard_work	72		✗	0.686	0	0.00119
22	middl_class	12		✓	0.0553	0	0.00856
22	middl_class	12		✗	0.932	0	0.00458
23	bank_account	18		✓	0.0969	0	0.000796
23	bank_account	18		✗	0.901	0	0.00139
24	american_idea	110		✓	0.43	0	0.00876
24	american_idea	110		✗	0.561	0	0
25	basic_idea	3		✓	0.0175	0	0.00159
25	basic_idea	3		✗	0.974	0	0.00736
26	hard_work	76		✓	0.322	0	0.00498
26	hard_work	76		✗	0.672	0	0.000398
27	work_harder	11		✓	0.0553	0	0.0121
27	work_harder	11		✗	0.929	0	0.00358
28	health_care	14		✓	0.0452	0.000597	0.275
28	health_care	14		✗	0.664	0	0.0151
29	job_growth	19		✓	0	0	0.726
29	job_growth	19		✗	0.00139	0	0.273
30	vast_major	30		✓	0.00239	0	0.0925
30	vast_major	30		✗	0.000796	0	0.904
31	financi_crisi	22		✓	0.000597	0	0.0744
31	financi_crisi	22		✗	0.000199	0	0.925
32	econom_crisi	7		✓	0	0	0.0255
32	econom_crisi	7		✗	0.000398	0	0.974
33	great_depress	3		✓	0.000199	0	0.0115
33	great_depress	3		✗	0.000199	0	0.988
34	middl_class	72		✓	0.0163	0.000398	0.228
34	middl_class	72		✗	0	0	0.755
35	__NUM___job	30		✓	0	0	0.112
35	__NUM___job	30		✗	0	0	0.888
36	financi_system	6		✓	0.00239	0	0.0187
36	financi_system	6		✗	0.000199	0	0.979
37	singl_dai	28		✓	0.706	0	0.0344
37	singl_dai	28		✗	0.00239	0	0.257
38	move_forward	1		✓	0.00756	0	0.00537
38	move_forward	1		✗	0.699	0	0.288
39	american_peopl	19		✓	0.0768	0	0.0496
39	american_peopl	19		✗	0.616	0	0.258
40	financi_crisi	12		✓	0.0299	0	0.181
40	financi_crisi	12		✗	0.497	0	0.293
41	work_hard	16		✓	0.483	0	0.000995
41	work_hard	16		✗	0.49	0	0.0253
42	bounc_back	7		✓	0.0547	0	0
42	bounc_back	7		✗	0.945	0	0.000199
43	work_hard	64		✓	0.27	0	0.00458
43	work_hard	64		✗	0.726	0	0
44	fair_share	16		✓	0.0788	0	0.00358
44	fair_share	16		✗	0.916	0	0.00139
45	unit_state	30		✓	0.132	0	0.0213
45	unit_state	30		✗	0.843	0	0.00318
46	big_idea	102		✓	0.367	0	0.116
46	big_idea	102		✗	0.51	0	0.00756
47	polit_parti	34		✓	0.223	0	0.00438
47	polit_parti	34		✗	0.751	0	0.0209
48	bush_tax_cut	39		✓	0	0	0.976
48	bush_tax_cut	39		✗	0.00159	0	0.0221
49	__MONEY___trillion	15		✓	0	0	0.0523
49	__MONEY___trillion	15		✗	0	0	0.948
50	tax_cut	2		✓	0.000199	0	0.00876
50	tax_cut	2		✗	0	0	0.991
51	basic_econom	115		✓	0	0	0.368
51	basic_econom	115		✗	0	0	0.632
52	econom_theori	0		✓	0.000597	0	0.00239
52	econom_theori	0		✗	0	0	0.997
53	insur_compani	23		✓	0	0	0.0808
53	insur_compani	23		✗	0	0	0.919
54	wall_street_bank	2		✓	0	0	0.0101
54	wall_street_bank	2		✗	0	0	0.99
55	protect_consum	9		✓	0	0	0.0338
55	protect_consum	9		✗	0	0	0.966
56	tax_cut	21		✓	0.000398	0.000199	0.0695
56	tax_cut	21		✗	0	0	0.93
57	web_site	41		✓	0.000597	0	0.142
57	web_site	41		✗	0	0	0.857
58	hous_republican	10		✓	0.000199	0	0.0362
58	hous_republican	10		✗	0	0	0.964
59	job_growth	64		✓	0	0	0.221
59	job_growth	64		✗	0	0	0.779
60	middl_class	4		✓	0.000796	0	0.0159
60	middl_class	4		✗	0	0	0.983
61	financi_crisi	13		✓	0.000597	0	0.046
61	financi_crisi	13		✗	0.000398	0	0.953
62	gener_rule	44		✓	0.00259	0	0.148
62	gener_rule	44		✗	0	0	0.85
63	work_famili	64		✓	0.347	0.0117	0.139
63	work_famili	64		✗	0.00119	0	0.501
64	american_idea	46		✓	0.323	0	0.0742
64	american_idea	46		✗	0.266	0.000199	0.336
65	good_idea	30		✓	0.0195	0.000199	0.494
65	good_idea	30		✗	0.12	0	0.367
66	million_job	9		✓	0.000199	0.00119	0.169
66	million_job	9		✗	0.00119	0.000199	0.829
67	american_industri	16		✓	0	0	0.0585
67	american_industri	16		✗	0	0	0.941
68	american_manufactur	2		✓	0	0	0.0101
68	american_manufactur	2		✗	0	0	0.99
69	auto_industri	7		✓	0.00398	0	0.0231
69	auto_industri	7		✗	0	0	0.973
70	san_antonio	35		✓	0.944	0	0.00438
70	san_antonio	35		✗	0.00318	0	0.0484
71	make_thing	6		✓	0.0442	0	0.00318
71	make_thing	6		✗	0.916	0	0.0364
72	unit_state	4		✓	0.0175	0	0.123
72	unit_state	4		✗	0.82	0	0.0396
73	tax_break	9		✓	0.000199	0	0.836
73	tax_break	9		✗	0.00458	0	0.159
74	job_oversea	6		✓	0	0	0.0251
74	job_oversea	6		✗	0	0	0.975
75	tax_break	3		✓	0	0	0.0119
75	tax_break	3		✗	0	0	0.988
76	unit_state	15		✓	0.00736	0	0.0513
76	unit_state	15		✗	0	0	0.941
77	american_worker	5		✓	0.000199	0	0.0215
77	american_worker	5		✗	0.00318	0	0.975
78	call_card	28		✓	0.000796	0	0.0973
78	call_card	28		✗	0.000199	0	0.902
79	privat_sector	8		✓	0	0	0.0277
79	privat_sector	8		✗	0	0	0.972
80	made_monei	14		✓	0.0105	0	0.0494
80	made_monei	14		✗	0	0	0.94
81	white_hous	21		✓	0.397	0.000199	0.0404
81	white_hous	21		✗	0.00856	0	0.554
82	job_back	12		✓	0.424	0	0.00856
82	job_back	12		✗	0.382	0	0.185
83	back_home	0		✓	0.157	0	0
83	back_home	0		✗	0.804	0	0.0384
84	unit_state	13		✓	0.0798	0	0.00139
84	unit_state	13		✗	0.9	0	0.0187
85	bin_laden	22		✓	0.109	0	0.00279
85	bin_laden	22		✗	0.876	0	0.0125
86	troop_home	15		✓	0.0784	0	0
86	troop_home	15		✗	0.912	0	0.00995
87	world_histori	99		✓	0.162	0.00756	0.583
87	world_histori	99		✗	0.245	0	0.00199
88	nation_defens	17		✓	0.031	0.000796	0.169
88	nation_defens	17		✗	0.251	0.00537	0.542
89	rural_commun	57		✓	0.662	0	0.0304
89	rural_commun	57		✗	0.2	0.000199	0.107
90	construct_worker	40		✓	0.0826	0	0.44
90	construct_worker	40		✗	0.364	0	0.113
91	long_term	26		✓	0.0424	0.000398	0.2
91	long_term	26		✗	0.262	0	0.496
92	tax_cut	73		✓	0.116	0.00697	0.294
92	tax_cut	73		✗	0.113	0.000199	0.47
93	young_man	13		✓	0.78	0	0.000199
93	young_man	13		✗	0.214	0.000199	0.00657
94	educ_system	43		✓	0.195	0	0.000398
94	educ_system	43		✗	0.805	0	0
95	student_loan	39		✓	0.175	0	0.0215
95	student_loan	39		✗	0.803	0	0.000199
96	middl_class	9		✓	0.0416	0	0.0332
96	middl_class	9		✗	0.905	0	0.0203
97	class_famili	0		✓	0.00418	0	0.00418
97	class_famili	0		✗	0.939	0	0.0527
98	tax_credit	4		✓	0.0605	0	0.000199
98	tax_credit	4		✗	0.924	0	0.0157
99	__NUM___million	23		✓	0.117	0	0.00139
99	__NUM___million	23		✗	0.879	0	0.00259
100	young_peopl	1		✓	0.0129	0	0
100	young_peopl	1		✗	0.986	0	0.00139
101	commun_colleg	4		✓	0.0247	0	0
101	commun_colleg	4		✗	0.975	0	0
102	higher_educ	26		✓	0.109	0	0
102	higher_educ	26		✗	0.891	0	0
103	__NUM___centuri	7		✓	0.033	0	0
103	__NUM___centuri	7		✗	0.967	0	0
104	unit_state	9		✓	0.0442	0	0
104	unit_state	9		✗	0.956	0	0
105	colleg_graduat	10		✓	0.0482	0	0.000597
105	colleg_graduat	10		✗	0.951	0	0
106	global_economi	14		✓	0.0444	0	0
106	global_economi	14		✗	0.956	0	0
107	__NUM___centuri	3		✓	0.0215	0	0
107	__NUM___centuri	3		✗	0.979	0	0
108	unit_state	17		✓	0.329	0	0.00398
108	unit_state	17		✗	0.667	0	0
109	stark_contrast	8		✓	0.0503	0	0.000199
109	stark_contrast	8		✗	0.948	0	0.000995
110	low_rate	53		✓	0.111	0	0
110	low_rate	53		✗	0.889	0	0
111	averag_famili	3		✓	0.000199	0	0
111	averag_famili	3		✗	1	0	0
112	save___MONEY__	2		✓	0.000398	0	0
112	save___MONEY__	2		✗	1	0	0
113	hous_market	24		✓	0.00139	0	0
113	hous_market	24		✗	0.999	0	0
114	bad_idea	62		✓	0.00259	0	0.000199
114	bad_idea	62		✗	0.997	0	0
115	health_care	17		✓	0.00259	0	0.000199
115	health_care	17		✗	0.997	0	0
116	__NUM___year	38		✓	0.0113	0	0.000199
116	__NUM___year	38		✗	0.988	0	0
117	health_care	4		✓	0.000796	0	0
117	health_care	4		✗	0.999	0	0
118	care_act	10		✓	0.00119	0	0
118	care_act	10		✗	0.999	0	0
119	health_care	83		✓	0.00776	0	0
119	health_care	83		✗	0.992	0	0
120	insur_compani	16		✓	0.000796	0	0.000199
120	insur_compani	16		✗	0.999	0	0
121	__NUM___year	26		✓	0.0169	0	0
121	__NUM___year	26		✗	0.983	0	0
122	senior_citizen	2		✓	0.000398	0	0
122	senior_citizen	2		✗	1	0	0
123	prescript_drug	5		✓	0.000199	0	0
123	prescript_drug	5		✗	1	0	0
124	health_insur	6		✓	0.000796	0	0
124	health_insur	6		✗	0.999	0	0
125	higher_premium	65		✓	0.00517	0	0
125	higher_premium	65		✗	0.995	0	0
126	__NUM___million_peopl	25		✓	0.00119	0	0
126	__NUM___million_peopl	25		✗	0.999	0	0
127	health_insur	6		✓	0.000597	0	0
127	health_insur	6		✗	0.999	0	0
128	arizona_law	17		✓	0.00458	0	0
128	arizona_law	17		✗	0.995	0	0
129	work_hard	44		✓	0.829	0	0.0215
129	work_hard	44		✗	0.15	0	0
130	young_peopl	3		✓	0.0199	0	0.00259
130	young_peopl	3		✗	0.958	0	0.0191
131	import_issu	59		✓	0.161	0.00139	0.328
131	import_issu	59		✗	0.493	0	0.0167
132	__MONEY___trillion	13		✓	0	0	0.669
132	__MONEY___trillion	13		✗	0	0	0.331
133	tax_cut	1		✓	0	0	0.00597
133	tax_cut	1		✗	0	0	0.994
134	govern_program	33		✓	0	0	0.111
134	govern_program	33		✗	0	0	0.889
135	trillion_dollar	6		✓	0	0	0.0231
135	trillion_dollar	6		✗	0	0	0.977
136	feder_budget	4		✓	0.0322	0	0.0179
136	feder_budget	4		✗	0	0	0.95
137	work_hard	38		✓	0.883	0	0.0241
137	work_hard	38		✗	0.0269	0	0.0661
138	young_peopl	16		✓	0.0846	0.000199	0.0135
138	young_peopl	16		✗	0.839	0	0.0631
139	transport_system	18		✓	0.0591	0.00776	0.126
139	transport_system	18		✗	0.737	0.000199	0.07
140	bill_clinton	83		✓	0.00259	0	0.859
140	bill_clinton	83		✗	0.00398	0	0.135
141	creat___NUM__	28		✓	0.0189	0	0.0953
141	creat___NUM__	28		✗	0.00438	0	0.881
142	__NUM___million	0		✓	0.00716	0.000199	0.00338
142	__NUM___million	0		✗	0.0233	0	0.966
143	middl_class	23		✓	0.148	0.000796	0.0649
143	middl_class	23		✗	0.0267	0	0.759
144	free_market	54		✓	0.709	0.00139	0.031
144	free_market	54		✗	0.133	0	0.125
145	creat_wealth	8		✓	0.0545	0.000199	0.00657
145	creat_wealth	8		✗	0.81	0.000995	0.128
146	abraham_lincoln	6		✓	0.153	0	0.000597
146	abraham_lincoln	6		✗	0.833	0.000199	0.0129
147	back_home	21		✓	0.123	0	0
147	back_home	21		✗	0.877	0	0
148	gi_bill	6		✓	0.0308	0	0
148	gi_bill	6		✗	0.969	0	0
149	unit_state	109		✓	0.425	0	0.00796
149	unit_state	109		✗	0.567	0	0
150	__NUM___month	10		✓	0.0549	0	0.00199
150	__NUM___month	10		✗	0.94	0	0.00279
151	battleground_state	14		✓	0.0661	0	0
151	battleground_state	14		✗	0.934	0	0.000199
152	__MONEY___million	24		✓	0.0878	0.00119	0.227
152	__MONEY___million	24		✗	0.684	0	0.000199
153	econom_plan	84		✓	0.00736	0	0.815
153	econom_plan	84		✗	0.0117	0	0.166
154	polit_process	31		✓	0.739	0.000199	0.0263
154	polit_process	31		✗	0.0165	0	0.218
155	same_thing	13		✓	0.0778	0	0.0221
155	same_thing	13		✗	0.698	0	0.202
156	live_room	29		✓	0.327	0	0.000199
156	live_room	29		✗	0.671	0	0.00159
157	american_peopl	75		✓	0.32	0	0.00876
157	american_peopl	75		✗	0.671	0	0.000199
158	ordinari_peopl	33		✓	0.155	0.000199	0.00119
158	ordinari_peopl	33		✗	0.842	0	0.000796
159	singl_dai	115		✓	0.443	0	0.0117
159	singl_dai	115		✗	0.545	0	0.000199
160	phone_call	80		✓	0.351	0	0
160	phone_call	80		✗	0.649	0	0
161	unit_state	64		✓	0.274	0	0.00219
161	unit_state	64		✗	0.724	0	0
162	god_bless	9		✓	0.0428	0	0
162	god_bless	9		✗	0.957	0	0
163	unit_state	15		✓	0.0631	0	0.0161
163	unit_state	15		✗	0.921	0	0
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	3

Barack Obama

Cue-lag representation